Benedict's Newsletter: No. 662
NO. 662   FREE EDITION   SUNDAY 27 SEP 2026
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Agents

I’ve been thinking a lot about what kinds of problem AI is really good at solving for consumers that really weren’t being solved before, and about the right entry points to ask those questions. 

First, I think it’s really fruitful to look at friction, inertia, complexity and cognitive biases like loss aversion. There are all sorts of places in the economy and a consumer’s life where you could get a better outcome, save time, or save money if you optimised your choices and processes properly, and we don’t. You can look at everything from insurance to utilities to picking the right credit card to match your spending, where it’s too much effort or too difficult. Many of these systems also privilege middle-class people who know how to ask the right questions or who know how to argue, and meanwhile the structures that have grown up to help us choose often focus on what’s easy for them to measure or what makes them the most money. Recommendation systems focus on what’s easiest to rank, which may not be the best fit. So, there are lots of places where, one you add it all up, there’s a few hundred million dollars or more of money lying on the table as slack that better choices, and hence automation of those choices, might remove. 

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My work

AI, tools and transformation

It’s very tempting to imagine that AI turns everyone into a tool-builder - now everyone can just ask the model to make the software they need, and apps as we know them are dead. I think that misunderstands how most people think and where software actually comes from, and more importantly, it isn’t a path to change how companies actually work. LINK

Another Podcast: Looking for friction 

How much consumer spending and how many business models are locked up by friction, inertia and complexity that AI might reduce or remove? How many businesses depend on making it too hard to bother? What happens if ‘the marginal cost of arguing goes to zero’? LINK

News

Muse

The Muse hype cycle continues to build. Apparently it had 500k downloads and 250k active users in the first week, though only 2m prompts. Matter is integrating it into a batch of new glasses, some of them without cameras to get the price and bulk down, and also teased a watch-sized puck called ‘Charm’ with the cute Jellycat-style Muse avatar integrated.

Meta is clearly executing really well, but I am very ambivalent about the whole product category: I am not sure how well it can work to ask consumers to work out what to do with this. It’s not good that so many of the things Meta proposes are problems most people don’t have more than every couple of years. Do you solve the blank screen problem with better product and better models, maybe with more access to your data so they can be pro-active? Or is the right consumer route to market vertical rather than horizontal? Is the right place for an agent to work out that you should sweep your checking account into savings, and use a different credit card, in some kind of finance service, or in the same app that might help you choose a new coat or book a flight? I don’t think anyone knows: AI today is where the Internet was in the mid-90s, and no-one really knows what the right building blocks will be. KEYNOTE, CHARM, 500,000, INTERVIEW

Blocking Muse

In ecommerce, meanwhile, Muse poses the same trade-off as every other aggregator in history: for a brand or a retailer, if you work with it then you get distribution, but you give up ownership of the experience and the customer, and so Shopify says it will help its merchants to integrate with Muse, whereas Amazon (which has its own distribution) says it will block it. SHOPIFY, AMAZON

Trying glasses again, again

Meta launched a new pair of VR glasses, more or less matching the Vision Pro, though with a less good screen (narrower field of view), but much lighter, achieved by moving the compute to a puck, and at half the price. It’s really tough to say anything new here. The new wave of VR and mixed reality began more than a decade ago, and the devices keep getting better, but they're somehow never good enough for sales to take off and the real question is, even if the device were ‘perfect’, how many people would care? What do you actually do with this thing? Meta’s answer is pretty barren: “you can have a great home cinema, you can see 6 monitors when you work at the coffee shop, and you can play (not very good) games” - this is not the path to the mass market.

And then, you can do mixed reality, which remains an unfalsifiable promise. I have a Vision Pro, and I take it out of the cupboard every couple of months for half an hour. I don't think the problem is the price and the weight (though obviously they don’t help): I think the real problems are that first, the future of computing isn’t a bigger screen - it isn’t seeing more rows in your spreadsheet - and second, very little content besides games makes any sense in 3D. It’s amazingly cool, but that’s not always enough. LINK

OpenAI’s training problem

Now that OpenAI is actually checking, in the aftermath of the Hugging Face breach, it’s discovered that the models in its testing labs were doing all sorts of things all over the internet, from hammering public databases with thousands of queries to finding an unsecured Australian government health data website and reading a bunch of data.

The trouble is, all of these systems were doing what they’d been told to do. The whole concept of an agent is that you set it an objective and it works out how to solve it by itself: OpenAI was testing agents to see if they could solve problems, allowed tens of thousands of them to try to work out solutions by themselves, and some of the solutions that they found were obnoxious, antisocial, or potentially illegal. There’s an old saying that a dog does what you tell it to do, but that may not be what you think you told it to do: these systems were doing what they were taught, instructed, designed, and set up to do: they were told to find solutions to do X and they did.

The real question is how you frame all of this. The model labs talk very seriously and (to be fair) mostly sincerely about ‘alignment’ and describe this activity in anthropomorphic terms - they talk about the models taking decisions and having intent and agency, and the need to teach them better behaviour. And true, these models are grown, not built. But the backlash to this, in Silicon Valley itself, is to say that this is trying to redefine bugs, design flaws, unintended behaviour and engineering failures. When Word ate your essay and undo didn’t work, you didn’t claim that Word ‘decided’ to destroy your work and then ‘lied’ about it. In particular, these incidents are almost entirely cases of models running on a test environment that simply wasn’t working properly and wasn’t being monitored properly. That’s an engineering problem, a management problem and a legal liability problem. AUSTRALIA, FLAWED TEST ENVIRONMENT, THOUSANDS

Robots

The Information says that Tesla is currently manufacturing a few hundred humanoid robots each week (the eventual ambition is 20k per week). Meanwhile, Amazon is expanding its own warehouse robot manufacturing with a new $100m factory - it says it has now deployed over a million robots, none of which are humanoid. TESLA, AMAZON

Claude genetics

Anthropic claims to have used Claude to discover a novel enzyme system. I can't comment on the biology part of this, but the interesting AI theme, as we've also seen in mathematics and cyber, is using thousands of models running in parallel to swarm the problem. I always used to call AI infinite interns, and in a sense, that's what we're seeing here - using a thousand systems of X intelligence rather than making one system with 1000x intelligence can unlock a lot. But it also prompts the question of which kinds of problem are and are not solvable with scaled intelligence rather than greater intelligence (and which do not need to validate their work in the real world, which kills the speed and scale). LINK

The week in AI

Microsoft rebranded Copilot from one confusing thing to another confusing thing. LINK

Instacart joined many of its retail peers in launching an AI Assistant. I want to work out what to buy for a picnic, should I ask ChatGPT/Claude Gemini, or the assistant from Walmart or Instacart? This is a new version of an old problem - vertical or horizontal search? Who has the data and who has the touch point? LINK

Google is experimenting with putting TPU into orbit. Maybe orbital data centres will work out like satellite internet - a great idea in this bubble, and they’ll actually work by the time the next bubble arrives? LINK

ASML pointed out that it has zero revenue in Europe so far in 2026: does Europe want to have sovereign semis manufacturing capability? LINK

Everything is hacked

Everyone is hacked: a cyber crime group called ‘Shiny Hunters’ claims it has FBI personal records on all bureau staff, including medical and psychiatric records, addresses and assignments. LINK

About

What matters in tech? What’s going on, what might it mean, and what will happen next?

I’ve spent 25 years analysing mobile, media and technology, and worked in equity research, strategy, consulting and venture capital. I’m now an independent analyst, and I speak and consult on strategy and technology for companies around the world.

Ideas

Jeffrey Katzenberg on what AI means for Hollywood and creativity. LINK

The NY Times did a two hour video interview with Jensen Huang of Nvidia, saying nothing terribly surprising, and reflecting the broader consensus on Silicon Valley that AI Risk and ‘pacing the frontier’ is very silly (of course, he has chips to sell). LINK

The US issues some social security payments in a proprietary debit card system, but hasn’t bothered to update the security from magnetic stripes to EMV chips (which are now over 90% of US acceptances). As a result, organised criminals have been installing skimmers on the EBT terminals to steal people’s money. Meanwhile, many US states have decided not to provide refunds in cases of fraud. LINK

US banks are nervous about people letting their agents make credit card purchases - where is the liability and how are fraud and chargeback handled? LINK

US health insurances complain that US hospitals are using AI to make more complex codings for more complex claims. STUDY, COVERAGE

More broadly, I’ve started collecting cases where a lot of money is locked up in friction, inertia and cognitive biases. HEALTH INSURANCE, PROPERTY TAX, PHONE PLANS

In particular, Apollo suggests that if consumers start using AI agents to manage their finances, then an automated sweep from ‘checking accounts’ (no interest paid) to interest-bearing accounts (3-5%) could be a huge change to the US banking system. LINK

Outside interests

Vale Noël Godin, anarcho-confectioner and champion of the entartement, who pied Bill Gates once and Bernard-Henri Lévy eight times. “We shouted the war cry - ‘Let us flan, let us flan’ - and then went into action” LINK

Data

A tracker of the career paths of AI researchers - what countries do they come from and where do they go? LINK

Traffic to US news sites has been declining significantly in the last 18 months. LINK

Brookings got some attention with an analysis of the total implied investment for AI infrastructure: over 3% of US GDP, with all of the consequent macro issues (systemic risk) and uncertain returns. LINK

Chinese brands are now 12% of European car sales and 16% of UK car sales, and growing fast. EUROPE, UK

Pew: US public perception of data centres continues to get worse. It’s worth noting that the concerns centre on environmental issues that are hugely exaggerated (especially water use). LINK

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